In a recent analysis authored by Malcolm Forbes-Cable, vice president of Upstream and Carbon Management Consulting, and Will Taylor, principal consultant for EMEA Downstream Consulting at Wood Mackenzie, the central role of the United Kingdom in Europe’s oil supply chain is brought sharply into focus. Their independent study—commissioned by Ithaca Energy and endorsed by Offshore Energies UK (OEUK)—reveals the true extent of the interconnected energy system that binds the UK and continental Europe.
Forbes-Cable and Taylor highlight that Europe’s energy security rests on a foundation more complex and integrated than many fully appreciate. The continent relies on imports for 80 percent of its crude oil needs, consuming approximately 12.6 million barrels per day (b/d) while producing only around 2.5 million b/d domestically. Within this landscape, the United Kingdom emerges not as a peripheral participant but as a critical stabilising force.

According to the authors, the UK is Europe’s second-largest oil producer after Norway, and its crude oil flows are essential to maintaining refining activity across the region. More than 80 percent of UK crude production is exported, with 86 percent of those exports bound for European refineries. This includes a significant pipeline of 370,000 b/d moving to Northwest Europe—volumes that represent nearly three-quarters of all UK crude exports.
The analysis underscores the mutual dependence that defines the UK-Europe oil relationship. After processing UK crude, Northwest European refineries send 288,000 b/d of refined oil products back to the UK. In total, 89 percent of UK crude production is refined somewhere in Europe. Remarkably, Forbes-Cable and Taylor note that 65 percent of the crude produced in the UK ultimately serves the UK market, either through domestic refining or by returning as imported refined products from Europe.
This ecosystem, the authors argue, demonstrates a crucial reality: the UK and Europe function as a single, deeply integrated energy system. UK crude production supports the stability of European refining, helps diversify regional supply sources, and reduces reliance on imports from outside Europe. In return, European refining capacity provides the UK with access to a broad slate of refined products, enhancing supply flexibility and strengthening national energy security.
As Forbes-Cable and Taylor emphasise, this interdependence must not be overlooked as Europe navigates the energy transition. Policy decisions made in the UK directly influence European refining markets, while changes in European refining policy reverberate back across the UK’s supply chain. In their view, the role of UK crude production is not merely important—it is critical to the resilience and stability of Europe’s broader energy system.
Their report ultimately illustrates a fundamental truth: the UK and Europe are not separate actors competing within an isolated marketplace. They are partners in an integrated network whose cooperation underpins regional energy security today and will continue to do so as both sides navigate the complexities of future energy policy.
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