A new analysis from i6 Group highlights the growing operational and financial impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict on the global aviation sector, with airlines facing billions of dollars in additional fuel costs ahead of the peak summer 2026 travel season.
According to the Day 60 assessment prepared by the i6 Data Team, prolonged rerouting around affected Middle East airspace has already added an estimated $2.6 billion to $3.9 billion to global airline fuel bills. If disruptions continue through the summer period from May to August, the report projects industry-wide additional fuel costs could rise to between $5.6 billion and $8.4 billion.
The report is based on operational fueling data collected across nearly 300 airports worldwide where i6 has digitized into-plane fueling operations.
The analysis shows that airlines operating Europe-to-Asia and Europe-to-East Africa routes are being forced to fly longer distances, significantly increasing fuel consumption and operational costs. Narrowbody aircraft have experienced the largest proportional increase in fuel uplift requirements, with average fuel loads per flight rising by 9.3% compared to pre-conflict levels.
At the same time, European airport fuel inventories have risen sharply. Average fuel book stocks across monitored airports were reported to be 62.2% higher than April 2025 levels, while the regional fuel supply-demand surplus increased from 6% in April 2025 to 17% in April 2026.
According to the report, the elevated stock levels reflect precautionary purchasing and strategic fuel storage rather than reduced supply availability. Operators are continuing to build reserves amid concerns over potential supply disruptions linked to constrained shipping routes and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
The data also points to a major shift in fueling activity within the Middle East itself. Fuel demand across the region fell by 49.2% year-on-year between February and April 2026, with 32 airlines fully suspending fueling activity at Middle East airports and 72 airlines reducing activity levels by more than 50%.
Despite the disruption in the region, overall global flight demand has remained relatively stable. The report notes that airlines are largely continuing to serve the same destinations but are relying on significantly longer flight paths to avoid conflict zones.
In addition to the financial impact, the rerouting is contributing to substantially higher aviation emissions. i6 estimates that rerouted flights are generating an additional 415,373 tonnes of CO₂ emissions per month across the i6 network alone. Industry-wide estimates place the monthly increase between 4.1 million and 6.2 million tonnes of additional CO₂ emissions.
The report warns that the summer travel season could intensify pressure on fuel supply chains, particularly if Gulf hub activity rebounds while regional supply infrastructure remains constrained.
i6 stated that all findings are based on anonymized and aggregated operational data and are intended to provide insight into aviation fuel trends during the ongoing disruption.
For more information visit i6 Group.
