Following the military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, Wood Mackenzie and Maplecroft experts weigh in on what this means for the oil and gas industry.
Wood Mackenzie research associate Saloni Kapoor said: “We estimate that new upstream projects worth $2 billion up until 2030 are yet to take final investment decision, including the A6 project which now risks further delay.
“Key developments such as PTTEP’s Block M9 (Zawtika) and Woodside’s Block A6 account for around 40 percent of the country’s expected supply until 2030. Incremental phases at Zawtika will provide upside to Myanmar’s energy mix, but if A6 does not progress as planned, an estimated 2 tcf of gas supply is threatened. This supply is critical to make up for declining volumes from legacy fields.
“The corporate landscape is dynamic. Five of the largest investors were to invest around $2.5 billion in projects over the next five years. However, ESG risk exposure now adds downside risk here, in which case that landscape could change quickly if investor sentiment is dampened.”
Wood Mackenzie consulting director Mangesh Patankar added: “Several LNG regas projects in Myanmar, including the existing small-scale terminal operated by CNTIC VPower and the proposed large-scale integrated LNG-to-Power project at Mee Laung Gyaing, are Chinese led. We see less impact on these projects from the recent military coup, given China has always engaged with both the military and the Aung San Suu Kyi-led government.”
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